Is Texas independence realistic?

Yes. It is the most realistic political work there is, because it is the only work aimed at a problem Texans can actually solve. Independence is the one effort with a path to an actual win.

There is a concrete plan

The plan is detailed, and it runs in clear moves: build the capacity, get the referendum bill through the Texas Legislature, win the vote with a simple majority, then negotiate the transition. There is a model bill, the Texas Independence Referendum Act, already drafted and already filed in the Legislature. There is a known vote threshold, fifty percent plus one. There is a turnout math that has been worked out. It is a plan with steps you can name, and every step is something Texans can do themselves.

The numbers describe a majority

Roughly 60 percent of Texans have told pollsters they support independence, and among likely voters it is two-thirds. Hundreds of thousands of Texans are on record. The Republican Party of Texas has adopted planks affirming the right to leave and calling for a referendum. You can argue about timing, but a majority of the state already agrees. Saying the people should not get to vote is the minority position.

It makes local work stick

Texans pour enormous energy into state and local fights, and then watch Washington override the results with a regulation, a mandate, or a court order. Independence removes the outside power that keeps undoing that work, and gives it a permanent home.

Waiting on Washington is the long shot

The unrealistic belief is that doing the same thing for another fifty years, voting in a system where Texas is outnumbered ten to one, will somehow produce a different result: that the federal government will one day reform itself if Texans are just patient enough. Independence stops betting on a miracle in Washington and starts working on a decision Texans can actually make.

The world keeps proving it is possible

Britain voted to leave the European Union and did it. Scotland and Quebec held votes on it. Czechoslovakia divided into two prosperous countries in about six months. More than 140 new self-governing nations have emerged since 1945. Peaceful self-determination is one of the most ordinary political events of the modern age.

The bottom line

Independence is the realest work on the table: the only effort pointed at a problem Texans can solve by themselves, with a plan, a majority, and a world full of proof that it can be done. The long shot is believing patience will fix Washington.