What will it take to win a TEXIT vote?

The current threshold to win any vote in Texas is a simple majority of those who vote. Some places have imposed higher thresholds for political separation, but there is no similar precedent in Texas for popular votes. Even Quebec, often cited as the exception, is no exception: Canada's Supreme Court declined to set any fixed number and asked only for a "clear majority." There is no question or debate about that aspect of the referendum. What's more interesting is predicting the number of votes it will take to win.

Since the threshold to win a Texit vote is a simple majority, it will take 50 percent plus 1 of those who cast a vote in the referendum. In the modern-day independence referenda, voter turnout is exceptional. In some instances, over 90 percent of those who are eligible to vote do so. The Scottish referendum turnout of 84.6 percent was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. The voter turnout for the Brexit referendum was 72.2 percent. When people finally get a real choice on the ballot, they show up.

By estimating a high-average turnout of 85 percent or more, we can ballpark the number of votes it will take for Texit to carry the day. With more than 15 million registered voters in Texas, the number required to win would fall somewhere between 6.5 and 8 million. To put that figure in perspective, that is on the order of the total votes cast for all presidential candidates in a Texas general election.

Like all elections, it will all come down to retail politics, excelling in the fundamentals of getting the message out and getting voters to the polls. Whichever side does it most effectively will win the day. Nigel Farage, former leader of the U.K. Independence Party, on the eve of the Brexit referendum, summarized what it would take to win.

"The Leave side can only win if we have an effective ground campaign comprising of activists from across the political spectrum working together."