Would taxes go up or down in an independent Texas?

They would not have to go up at all. The whole point of the numbers is that Texans already pay enough, to two governments, to fund one government with room to spare. Independence is a chance to pay less, not more, because the most expensive layer is the one Texas would be leaving.

Texans already pay enough, twice over

Texans pay two governments today, Washington and Austin, for a combined bill of about $453 billion a year. Governing Texas, counting the entire federal footprint folded into a single Texas government, costs about $295 billion a year. Per Texan, that is roughly $14,500 paid against about $9,400 in cost. The revenue Texans already generate covers the full cost of their government, with a wide margin, without raising anyone's taxes by a cent.

Be precise about the margin

Here is where we are more careful than our opponents. If you take Social Security and Medicare off the cost side, fairness says you take the payroll taxes that fund them off the revenue side too. Net the whole social-insurance system out of both columns and the margin narrows toward break-even. So the honest finding is not a giant annual surplus. It is self-sufficiency. Texas funds 100 percent of its own government on its current tax base. That is the floor of the case, and it holds no matter how you account for it.

The biggest bill Texans pay is the one they would shed

Texans currently ship about $72 billion a year to Washington just in interest on a federal debt they never voted for, plus about $150 billion a year in fresh federal borrowing. None of that buys Texas a road, a base, or a benefit. It services Washington's past spending. An independent Texas stops co-signing that, which is the single biggest reason the math runs in Texans' favor, not against it.

Texas keeps its tax structure

Texas funds itself today with no personal income tax. The sales tax does most of the work, with the rest from the franchise tax, motor-vehicle and motor-fuels taxes, severance taxes on oil and gas, and a long tail of fees. That structure does not change at independence. The constitutional ban on a personal income tax stays exactly where Texans put it. Independence is built on the model Texas already runs, not a new one imposed on top of it.

Room to cut, not just hold

Because the revenue already covers the cost, the realistic conversation after independence is about lowering the burden, not raising it. Ending the outflow to Washington and shedding the federal regulatory layer frees up room. Where that room goes, toward retiring property taxes or building reserves or cutting rates, is a decision for the government Texans elect. What the arithmetic rules out is the scare story that Texans would suddenly owe more.

The bottom line

Texans already pay enough to fund their own government with margin, and the costliest part of the current bill is the part they would leave behind in Washington. Independence points toward lower taxes, not higher ones.