Would healthcare cost more or less after independence?

We will not invent a number, and anyone who promises you an exact figure is guessing. What we can say honestly is that the forces pushing healthcare costs up are largely made in Washington, and independence moves Texas away from them while keeping the revenue and the control at home.

The honest answer starts with what we do not claim

Healthcare pricing is complex, and a responsible answer does not pretend to forecast it to the dollar. We are not going to fabricate a percentage. What we can do is name the real cost drivers honestly and show which direction independence pushes each one. That is a more useful answer than a made-up number, and it is the kind of answer Texans can actually check.

The inflation tax raises the price of everything, healthcare included

The single largest hidden force pushing up the cost of living, including healthcare, is the steady erosion of the dollar, and that is made in Washington. The dollar has lost about 22 percent of its purchasing power since 2020 alone, by the federal government's own inflation measure. When Washington spends past what it collects and the money supply balloons, prices rise across the board, and medical prices have risen faster than most. An independent Texas with sound money, built on the Texas Bullion Depository and the gold-and-silver legal tender of HB 1056, steps away from the largest tax Texans never voted for, which is direct relief on the cost of everything, healthcare among it.

Texas keeps more of every paycheck to spend on care

Texas funds itself with no personal income tax, and that does not change at independence. Keeping more of a paycheck is itself relief against the cost of healthcare, because it is income families keep to spend on premiums, deductibles, and care. And ending the roughly $72 billion a year that leaves Texas just in federal debt interest frees up room that a Texas government could direct toward health priorities. The structure that helps stays in place, and the biggest outflow goes away.

Control over the regulatory layer can lower cost

A real share of what healthcare costs is regulatory overhead, much of it federal. Independence removes a layer of federal regulation and hands the dial to Austin, which can shape health rules to fit Texas rather than to satisfy fifty-state mandates that drive up compliance cost. Texas could also use regulatory reliance to keep drug and device approvals fast and competitive, which supports access without the bottlenecks that add cost and delay. More control over the rules is a lever to bring costs down, not up.

Keep cross-border arrangements open and disruption stays low

The thing that could genuinely raise healthcare costs is disruption, and Texas is positioned to keep that low. Cross-border arrangements with U.S. providers, insurers, and suppliers can continue through a negotiated transition, and the medical supply chains that cross the Texas line keep running. With disruption held down, the structural advantages, sound money, no income tax, and Texas-set rules, come to the front.

The bottom line

We will not promise an exact figure. Honestly, the biggest drivers of rising healthcare costs are made in Washington, from the inflation tax to federal regulatory overhead, and independence moves Texas away from them while keeping more money in Texans' pockets and the policy dial in Austin. The pressure on cost points down, not up.